World politics and power – the dates and trends that will help shape 2023 | Adam Boulton | UK News

Major events that define a year, or even a decade, are rarely predicted.

No one predicted the 9/11 attacks on America in 2001, which then bogged down the leaderships of Tony Blair and George W. Bush.

This time a year ago, most experts doubted that Russia would go ahead with it. Satanic attack on Ukrainewhich he then launched on February 24.

Neither the finance and markets ministers had any idea. Cost of life crisis Which led to the attack and which will affect us all.

That doesn’t mean waiting for 2023 is a waste of time.

It is possible to identify dates and trends that will help shape the next 12 months.

Given that their economies are enduring all the high prices, inflation and interest rates, it will be a relief to G7 political leaders that France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Canada, As the government collapses, elections are not going to be held. US or UK in 2023.

The next reckoning with US and UK voters is scheduled for 2024.

Next year the ruling parties and their main opposition will be busy trying to best position themselves for victory.

Former President Donald Trump announced his bid for a third term at Mar-a-Lago in Palm Beach, Fla., on November 15, 2022.  Trump has said at a conference of Orthodox Jews that his "The best ally" Not to mention his widely criticized dinner with a white nationalist and a rapper who spewed anti-Semitism.  (AP Photo/Rebecca Blackwell, File)
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Donald Trump

January 2024 will see the official start of a long run for the White House.

This means that 2023 will determine who the nominees are and whether Joe Biden and Donald Trump will be 2020 re-election contenders.

Both men have indicated they plan to stand, although Mr Trump will be 82 and Mr Biden 86 at the end of his second term.

Mr. Biden’s candidacy requires Mr. Trump to enter the race.

Polls show him as the best Democrat to beat Mr. Trump again, but he will lose to almost any other Republican.

But Mr. Trump’s legal troubles are mounting.

Criminal charges on January 6, 2021 coup His New York City business may yet be implicated in fraud cases and an FBI investigation into the illegal removal of documents from the White House.

As Mr Trump’s re-election hopes fade, Republicans appear to be moving towards an open election process – with Ron DeSantis, Mike Pompeo, Nikki Haley and Mike Pence making their intentions clear in the coming months. Expected to do.

Mr Biden will then come under intense pressure from Democrats to stand up in the hope that a new candidate, who looks like a likely winner, may emerge.

In control of the new 118th Congress, Republicans plan to launch an investigation against the president and especially his errant son Hunter Biden.

But either Republicans or Democrats can be split by internal differences.

In Britain, after three Conservative prime ministers in a single year, Rishi Shankar should feel secure in his job until the election, but the Conservative Party has not done so recently.

The Conservatives started the year trailing Labor by a staggering 25 points in opinion polls.

If the Tories do badly in the local elections on May 4, there is a live possibility of removing the prime minister.

A swing against the Tories in equal contests four years ago, putting them on equal national vote share with Labour, was the beginning of the end for Theresa May, who was forced out months later.

Now, as in 2019, Boris Johnson is signaling his availability to take over from the wings.

Elections to councils in Northern Ireland have been moved back two weeks, otherwise a full vote count will take place on Coronation Day.

A view of the Parliament Buildings at Stormont, Belfast
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Stormont

Stormont may have had a fresh set of grid-locked Assembly elections.

The Westminster government has set a January 19 deadline for resuming cross-community power sharing.

There is no sign that this will happen as the DUP is calling for Northern Ireland to abandon its deal with the EU on post-Brexit trade.

In the run up to the 25th anniversary of the Good Friday Agreement in April, international attention will be focused on how Mr Sink’s government handles it. This difficult stand-off between the UK and the EU.

President Biden likes to celebrate his Irish roots and recently appointed Joseph Kennedy III as special envoy to Northern Ireland.

He has congratulated French President Emmanuel Macron on his official visit while Prime Minister Sink has yet to visit the White House.

The unity of the European Union will also be celebrated on January 22 when France and Germany mark the 60th anniversary of their Elysée Treaty, which officially welded the axis that has driven the EU ever since.

The European project will deepen at the beginning of this year when recent EU accession Croatia becomes part of the eurozone currency and Schengen freedom of movement.

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Elsewhere in the Balkans, Tensions between Kosovo and Serbia are rising again..

Both Turkey and Greece have elections this summer.

Increasingly autocratic Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan is fighting to extend his 20-year rule against a resurgent opposition.

Read more from Adam Bolton:
A ray of hope and reasons to be happy as 2022 ends
There is cold comfort for the homeless this Christmas amid the economic crisis.

Meanwhile Kyriakos Mitsotakis is on course to remain in power, but with less control in parliament.

He may yet increase his popularity dramatically by securing the return to Athens of the Elgin Marbles, now more properly called the Parthenon Statues.

The British Museum, headed by George Osborne, is hot on the heels of a deal. This will result in a headache for Mr Sink as full restoration will require an Act of Parliament.

Former Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva wraps himself in a Pernambuco flag during a rally in 2019.
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Lola da Silva

On January 1, Lula da Silva will be inaugurated as the new president of Brazil. The left-winger has pledged to reverse the environmentally destructive policies of his predecessor, Jair Bolsonaro.

Presidents and Prime Ministers come and go, but Britain has not had a change of head of state or coronation for more than 70 years.

May 6 will be a double bank holiday around the coronation.

Harry and Meghan on Christmas Day, Photo: AP
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Harry and Meghan. Photo: AP

King Charles plans an hour-long “slimmed-down” ceremony.

No one knows if the Duke and Duchess of Sussex will attend.

Prince Harry is set to further air his grievances with the publication of a new memoir, Spear., In early 2023.

Entertainment highlights in 2023 include the FIFA Women’s World Cup in Australia and New Zealand in July.

The tournament is set to cement a huge surge in interest in the women’s game, with England’s hopes high.

Football fan Sir Keir Starmer will be cheering her on, even as she and the Labor Party struggle to define what a woman is because of the trans rights controversy.

Liverpool Photo: AP
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Liverpool will host Eurovision. Photo: AP

Liverpool have. stepped in to host the Eurovision Song Contest in MayThis year’s winner, replaced by war-torn Ukraine.

Whatever stage the conflict has reached by then, it will inevitably be a bittersweet occasion.

The annual G7 meeting will also be a poignant reminder of the horrors of war.

The Japanese hosts are holding the summit in Hiroshima, the city where the first atomic bomb was dropped in 1945.

We can’t predict future era-defining shocks, but moving into the new year involves reflecting on the hard lessons of the past.



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